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November 20, 2005
US must lead resolution of Iranian nuclear crisis, Pickering tells Fletcher
Thomas Pickering (F’54), the former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs told Fletcher School students that the U.S. needs to “play a clear, front and center role” in addressing the crisis over Iran’s nuclear programs.
“The problem with the U.S. government has been a disinterest in taking multilateral action. To avoid a crash landing, you need to be at the takeoff,” Pickering said.
Currently Senior Vice President of International Relations at Boeing, Pickering’s timely talk at Fletcher on November 16, 2005 launched the Boston Forum on the Middle East, sponsored in conjunction with Fletcher’s Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies.
Although handling Iran’s nuclear program is one of the US’s most important foreign policy challenges, Pickering argued that “This is a chance to use diplomacy to turn challenges into opportunities.”
The United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) have voiced concern over Iran’s program to process uranium to produce nuclear fuel, which it claims is necessary to conserve its hydrocarbon resources. As a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran says it has a right to produce nuclear fuel for civil purposes.
Pickering pointed out that once a nation has the ability to enrich uranium, it can do so at the high levels necessary to produce atomic weapons and upon achieving that capability it can withdraw from the NPT and begin to produce nuclear weapons with no legal check.
He also warned that a nuclear-armed Iran could trigger a cascade effect throughout the Middle East. “If Iran gets nuclear weapons, states such as Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia may follow,” Pickering said.
However, Pickering said Iran’s recent request to renew negotiations with the France, Germany and UK (“EU-3”) was good news. The talks broke down in August when Iran rejected a proposal that would allow it to develop its nuclear program if it discontinued uranium enrichment processing.
Although Pickering thought negotiating with Iran is the best option, he said the recent talks seemed to be reaching to the “bottom of a deep hole,” adding that “If you are in a deep hole you should stop digging.”
To move the situation forward, he proposed three diplomatic options that the international community could pursue. First, he suggested that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council should make a formal treaty commitment for nuclear disarmament as a reinforcement of non-proliferation. However, he added that some countries may wish to guard the opportunity to resume production of nuclear weapons.
Second, he proposed creating an international regime that would provide nuclear power to non-nuclear states for civil purposes.
Third, he strongly suggested that the U.S. and possibly China join the negotiations initiated by the EU-3, showing a united front of the five United Nations (UN) Security Council permanent members. Pickering also suggested that the U.S. could explore a bilateral context with Iran to address outstanding issues between the two countries and possibly reopen channels for U.S. oil investment ventures in Iran.
“A set of proposal rich in carrots needs to be matched with ones in sticks,” Pickering, cautioned.
If Iran does not respond to negotiations, he suggested a three phased approach that would allow plenty of room for diplomacy. Pickering recommended first making the current US oil investment sanctions against Iran multilateral, followed by cessation of all trade with Iran except for oil and gas exports, and finally ending all oil and gas exports if necessary. Although these sanctions would have a disruptive effect, especially on energy markets, he said planning ahead could ensure their impact is focused on Iran and not the rest of the world.
Use of force should definitely be a last resort and is unlikely to be helpful, he argued, but added that he “would be the last diplomat to take these options off the table.”
Article by Aisha Husain, MALD '07
Posted by jessica at November 20, 2005 08:59 AM
