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April 26, 2006
Fred Friendly Symposium 2006: Fletcher Students and Faculty Play Roles in Simulation on American Energy Security
It’s uncommon for a student at The Fletcher School to be empowered to make decisions on behalf of entities like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or the state of Michigan. But students, along with faculty and practitioners, were given the opportunity to do just that in a simulation pitting the United States against the Arab world in a chaotic quest to secure oil resources.
About 75 audience members gathered in the ASEAN Auditorium on April 26 to attend a PhD Forum entitled, “What’s Yours is Ours: A Forum on American Energy Security.” Patterned after the Fred Friendly Seminar format, in which panelists take their principles to task in defending their positions on a hypothetical scenario, the central question tackled was whether the United States has the right to seize foreign oil fields to ensure its national security.
Nine panelists were left in the dark regarding their assigned roles until the event was underway, allowing for unscripted responses to scenarios concocted by moderator Elizabeth Chalecki, a PhD candidate at Fletcher.
The first phase of the simulation, set in late 2007, had Iraq embroiled in a brutal civil war with American troops unable to quell the violence. The cost of oil has skyrocketed to $5 a gallon and neighboring Saudi Arabia is facing a coup led by radical Islamists. The question posed: Should the United States intervene militarily to secure the Saudi oil fields?
“Whether we like it or not, we run on oil,” said Barbara Bodine, former U.S. ambassador to Yemen and a Fletcher alumna who played the role of U.S. president. She said her country would have “to look at the politics, the law and the feasibility” of invading Saudi Arabia.
As Secretary of Defense, Jeff Kubiak, a PhD candidate and active duty U.S. Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, said the situation constituted an “insurmountable task” without an allied effort and the reinstitution of the draft--moves that he would recommend to the president.
However, President Bodine said that such a measure would have to come much later in the process.
“First, get the people on the principle, then get them on the practicality,” she said.
Antonia Chayes, a visiting professor of international law and politics at Fletcher, spoke in her capacity as the UN-Secretary General. She highlighted the unlawful nature of U.S. military action in Saudi Arabia, unless troops were requested by the Saudi Royal Family.
“It is not legal but that has never stopped the United States before,” she said. “If you think Iraq is bad…it’s going to be far worse in Saudi Arabia, and the people will suffer.”
Bodine responded by saying America could make a valid argument that military action doubles as humanitarian intervention because people in developing nations that import oil would otherwise suffer from a loss of Saudi oil production.
Further developments in the scenario drew in other panelists, from Nigeria’s head of state to representatives from the media and oil industry. By the close of the simulation in 2011, oil cost more than $100 a barrel and Nigerian exports to the United States outpaced those from the Persian Gulf, as alternative forms of energy were proposed. The simulation concluded with each of the panelists giving a 60-second synopsis of their views.
Speaking after the event, Jim O’Brien, a second-year MALD student who played the role of the senior senator from Michigan, said, “The initial crisis of a Saudi overthrow is indeed likely.” But he acknowledged the logistical limitations of the simulation, noting that more international players would be at the discussion table in such a scenario.
The event was cosponsored by the Edward R. Murrow Center for Public Diplomacy and the Environment and Sustainability Initiative.
By Timothy R. Homan, MALD '07
Posted by fletcher at April 26, 2006 11:49 AM
