The Times of London recently did an interesting spread entitled “Atlas of the Real World.”  By now, pretty much everyone has seen one of those maps of the world according to population.  This set of 18 images expanded on the idea, showing maps of the world according to indicators such as distribution of wealth, prevalence of HIV, and increase in carbon dioxide emissions.

One of the most strikingly warped maps is the one of deaths due to violent conflict since 1945. 

The notes point out that “The most deaths as a percentage of the population occurred in Cambodia, followed by Timor-Leste, Angola, Rwanda, North Korea and Afghanistan.” 

So, how will this map look differently in 15 years?  If anything the trend towards even greater concentration of conflict in Africa and the Middle East seems to be continuing at present. What will it take to stop it?

Furthermore, this whole array of countries, including the prominence of Korea, Southeast Asia, Afghanistan, does a good job of showing the costs of the cold war in terms of human lives.  It wasn’t really cold; instead, the war was “exported”.

Finally, speaking trends and time, this sort of a map would be even more interesting laid out over time.  Imagine an animated map with countries swelling and shrinking according to the levels of violence… This animation could then be plotted against other variables.  Needless to say, some econometric analysis goes some of the way towards this same end, but visuals like a map are always better somehow.  On this count, the software Gapminder has had some success.   And if you’re really interested in this idea of applying technology and maps to old problems of international affairs, I would recommend getting in touch with Fletcher’s Patrick Meier.

Anyway, do have a look at the maps, and, while you’re at it, check out Chris Blattman’s excellent blog, which referred me to the Times in the first place.  Happy surfing.

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I just returned from a week long trek on the Annapurna Circuit in the Himalayas. With some of the world’s highest peaks like Dhaulagiri (7^th highest peak at 8,167 m) and Annapurna I (10^th highest peak at 8,091 m) and the world’s deepest gorge, Kaligandaki, this circuit offers breathtaking scenery as well as a look into the mountain life in Nepal. This was my third time on the circuit, having reached Thorang La Pass at 5416 m last time, and every time the formidable mountains mesmerize me.

Two years back, I had flown into Jomsom. Flying out of Jomsom, I had to wait two days for the weather to improve as the plane has to fly through several mountain passes. Some times there are no flights for weeks especially in the monsoon. This time my friends and I decided to go to Jomsom via land. We planned to drive to Kabre and trek to Jomsom from there. Driving from Pokhara to Kabre, it took us over seven hours to cover 120 km of narrow, winding, muddy road.

This is true for much of Nepal as the mountainous terrain makes it extremely challenging and costly to build roads. Development has been slow in Nepal particularly because of lack of roads. Lack of proper transportation means limited market for goods and produce, limited communication, and limited access to medical and educational facilities. Tiny huts stand by themselves atop hills. Even to fetch some water, villagers have to walk an hour downhill and another two hours uphill. For the mountain people, much of their lives revolve around fighting with the difficult terrain just to survive. A few years back when I was volunteering at Kanti Children’s Hospital, the only children’s hospital in Nepal, I saw many families who had lost their children because they had to walk for days just to get to the hospital.

However, it is critical to plan where to build roads by identifying and prioritizing key areas based on the population and their needs. How important was it to build the road to Jomsom? With a population of less than 10,000, Mustang district (Jomsom is the district-headquarter) is sparsely populated. Mustang is not a high food-producing area either, except for apples of which only about 20,000 tons are produced annually. Furthermore, the ecosystem around the Annapurna Circuit is very fragile as these are young mountains made of sedimentary rocks. The road construction process involving heavy blasting as well as the additional traffic flowing in now have put serious pressure on the ecosystem and the biodiversity here.

The road has been under construction for the past seven years, and lack of funding has halted the construction for now. Every year landslides wash away chunks of the road and what is left is being seriously degraded by heavy vehicles like tractors. Moreover, the road from Lete to Jomsom overlaps the trekking trail annoying trekkers who come here to escape urban chaos but end up engulfed in fumes. Talking to the local people in Jomsom, I did not find a single person who was happy with the road. The villages along the circuit that benefited from locals and trekkers resting along the way are now seeing less and less people.

So, while lack of roads is a major obstacle for development, poorly planned roads are even more of an obstacle. We need to take into consideration the long-term impact of building roads as it has implications for our fragile ecosystem and biodiversity. This is clearly linked with tourism which impacts local livelihood as well as government revenue. We are all gung-ho about connecting the entire country for greater unity, increased economic activity, greater mobility etc, but building roads in the mountainous region is like pouring water in sand. With limited funding and a multitude of issues, we need to prioritize our needs.

It is necessary to diversify “cores” for a more even development, but building roads and creating industries is not the only way to diversify such cores. Where the costs of building roads, monetary and environmental, are extremely high, alternative modes of transportation should be considered such as cable cars and airplanes. A recent discussion with a friend whose family owns a plastic industry opened my eyes to the downside of creating industries in a country like ours. We are sandwiched between two emerging economies. While we cannot possibly compete with India and China in industries, where we have a chance is in the services sector. By cultivating Nepal as a research and development hub, we can take advantage of our strategic location. There is still more room for improvement in the tourism sector as well.

Instead of trying to take development to each and every village, we should assist those areas that are developing. By strategically selecting an area based on accessibility and inducing migration to this area from isolated villages, we can create a stronger network across the country. The road to development should start with building smaller networks and then connecting them to create a larger network.

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I just returned from a week-long training in Passau, Germany, on the “Economics of Corruption.”  This was the 8th annual course of this type organized and led by Professor Graf Lambsdorff, the man who developed Transparency International’s Corruptions Perceptions Index.

I was there presenting on my thesis, which is on “Measuring Corruption in the Defense Sector: Tools for Civil Society.”  I joined a little over 50 other participants for a week of courses and games exploring various issues in corruption.

The week kicked off with a half-day simulation of a public procurement process where several competitors bribed and bid their way into a lucrative water supply contract while the government and tender board sought to supply clear policies for managing the bidders and their intermediaries.  I was on the government side.  One of the key lessons from this process was about the need for clear rules and transparency, especially in giving people a “sense of fairness,” no matter how fair the process actually is.

We also heard presentations from most of the participants, from civil society activists to economists to international agency representatives.  One woman, a journalist from Tanzania, spoke about how intimidation and self-censorship can pose a problem for the press.  Another from Switzerland’s main development agency spoke about his country’s role in facilitating stolen asset recovery for countries such as Nigeria.  Yet another presentation came from a Thai anti-corruption agent and economics professor, who humorously compared her own country’s prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, with Italy’s Berlusconi (both of whom have come under fire for accusations of corruption).  We also heard how corruption education affects GDP grown, why perceptions-based indexes are frustrating for some in government, and how corruption allegations can be used as a political tool for nefarious ends.

A few other things worth sharing are as follows:

First, the world’s interest in anti-corruption is increasing by leaps and bounds.  It is smart for Fletcher to continue offering classes that touch on this topic, and smarter still for Fletcher graduates to keep abreast of the anti-corruption movement.  It makes sense for people in all fields, from finance to human rights to development. A case in point: have you ever wondered about why many aid-financed roads in Africa deteriorate within a year of being built? Corruption in development procurement was the subject of a presentation by a representative of the World Bank’s Office of Institutional Integrity (which is currently expanding hiring, I hear).

Second, there remain real differences in the “what” of corruption—its forms, definitions, causes, and consequences—and, as a result, the “how” of anti-corruption.  Everything from petty bribery in public procurement to outright warlord politics like that of Charles Taylor is an expression of corruption, and it pays to stay grounded, specific, and purposeful in one’s language and analysis.

Finally, an approach to countering corruption successfully is one which takes account of institutional incentives.  By imposing draconian penalties on those who accept or pay bribes, are you inadvertently encouraging potential whistleblowers to remain quiet?  Do debarment policies end up working against market forces and competition?  Corruption is as nebulous as it is serious, and there is not simple, blanket solution for reform.

For further information, classes at that deal with corruption reform currently include the following:

• Rule of Law in Post-Conflict Societies (Aucoin)
• Corruption, Conflict, and Peacebuilding (Sharbatke-Church)
• International Business Transactions (Trachtman)
• Corporate Governance in International Business and Finance (Gonson)
• Law and Development (Salacuse)
• International Accounting Theory and Application in Global Capital Markets (Hunter)
• Managing Economic Reform in Low Income Countries (Botchway)

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