President Barack Obama is pushing a number of Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a freeze on the expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. In his meeting with U.S. Mideast envoy George Mitchell in London this week, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to ask the United States to pressure Saudi Arabia into opening direct diplomatic channels with his country. Many U.S. and Israeli officials argue that “normalization” would give Israel a real incentive to offer the concessions needed at this stage. A number of Arab states, namely Qatar and Bahrain, have already expressed willingness to reexamine renewing diplomatic ties with Israel.

But does it really make sense for Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, to normalize relations with Israel absent a final agreement that addresses all Arab grievances? Not really. First, the Israeli government has made clear over and over again that it would only consider a six to nine month settlement freeze that does not include ongoing construction, and would not accept any limitations on any activity in East Jerusalem, qualifications that make the whole concession fall way short of Arab expectations. Second, Arab states have little faith in the ability of the United States to enforce any understandings with Israel concerning the settlements issue. Despite repeated and consistent U.S. diplomatic protestations over the past two decades to halt settlement activity in the Palestinian territories, Israel has managed to raise the number of settlers in the West Bank from a mere 100 thousand living in 32 thousand units in 1992, to over 300 thousand living in 62 thousand units today. Naturally, the absence of reliable enforcement makes the “normalization” proposal a particularly risky investment. Finally, the settlement question is only one of many problems weighing down the Arab-Israeli peace process, and the Arab side has very few bargaining chips left. Issues like the Palestinian refugees, the final borders of the future Palestinian state, and the status of Jerusalem also require serious compromises that the any Israeli leadership will be both politically and ideologically predisposed to reject. Saving the “normalization” card until a later stage in the negotiations process maybe the Arabs’ only hope to secure a satisfactory peace agreement that they could reasonably justify to their people.

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